Students May Drift With Reform Pressure Off

This statement from the executive summary of the Rhode Island Department of Education's Fall 2010 RI NECAP Results report should be cause for concern: "In mathematics, only grade 11 had a statistically significant gain over last year's results."

Of itself, that gain, 6%, is good news - albeit tempered by the fact that only 33% of high school students are proficient in math. To the extent that New England Common Assessment Program (NECAP) tests count toward graduation, the iteration taken junior year is the critical one, so it is correspondingly important that improvements be seen there. Math scores have tended to plummet between eighth grade and eleventh, from around 60% proficiency in elementary school and 54% to 57% proficiency in middle school to 27% to 33% proficiency in high school. So, even if the lower grades stagnate a bit, plenty of room remains to fill the gap to the final test.

However, the 2010 test was to be the first on which graduation actually would depend. It was do or die for students to achieve at least "partially proficient," and 38% did not. All stops should have been pulled; the urgency among educators should have been near frantic...an extra-effort, contracts-out-the-window kind of frantic. Yet, I can't think of a single concerted example of such dedication amidst the past few years of budget battles, contract negotiations, and work-to-rule actions. 

And the result? A mere six percent proficiency gain. It's as if the education establishment knew that the requirements would never hold.

Making this especially worrisome is the fact that Governor Lincoln Chafee, who was elected with the strong support of the teachers' unions, has given every indication that it is not his intention to continue the sorts of reforms meant to increase pressure on public schools. For one thing, he's called for a "thoughtful pause" before increasing the number of charter schools in the state - just two years after the expiration of a four year moratorium on new charters imposed by the General Assembly, and immediately after the state promised the federal government to increase such institutions as part of its Race to the Top proposal.

The reform movement can only struggle under a governor who prefers to ignore the fact that "charter school gains on the [NECAP] are more than three times larger" among charters than the state average, according to Rhode Island Campaign for Achievement Now (RI-CAN).

For another thing, Chafee has swept the strongest voices for education reform from the state Board of Regents, notably Chairman Robert Flanders and Angus Davis, whom many credit for his strong advocacy in the hiring of Education Commissioner Deborah Gist. Rapidly following the rout of regents, Gist announced that rigorous graduation requirements would be postponed from the class of 2012 to the class of 2014.

When the tests actually count again, the state will have been guided for two years by a union-friendly governor and his hand-picked education bureaucracy. More importantly, educators have now tested the resolve of the state to allow real consequences for systematic failure, and the state proved there to be none. Gist blinked, and at this time, reforms appear to have lost political teeth, rather than gaining them.

If no lower grades saw "statistically significant gains" in math scores over the past year (in the past three years, truth be told), and if the necessity of a real push during junior year has been mitigated, then what hope is there? Very little, and the illustrates the point. 

As the attached chart illustrates, in the years leading up to NECAP D-Day, the 11th grade improved about 6% per year, despite the fact that each class had slipped about 4% from the previous when the same students were 8th graders. If their middle school scores are any indication, the next two graduating classes should be more proficient, and not only has there been no correlation between 8th grade scores and 11th grade scores, but the middle school gains have also since been completely lost.

In predicting future trends, the variables involved are so numerous that it would be the subject of an extensive academic study to account for their effects. For example, the Board of Regents set its 2012 deadline in September 2008, too late for that year's NECAP scores to reflect a long-term impact, but just in time for some last-minute motivation of teachers and students. Deborah Gist appeared on the scene soon after. Meanwhile, 2008 was a year of contentious contract disputes in Tiverton, and the prospect of significant raises has been waning since final resolution in early 2009.

Also in the meantime, the East Providence School Committee stood up to the unions and was toppled by them come election time.

With all of that complexity, parents and taxpayers might find some encouragement if reform efforts had institutionalized improved practices. Unfortunately, time has been too short, and as recent events have already shown, the education establishment had not yet finished fighting against accountability. Now, matters won't come to a head for another two years, and Rhode Island's students will continue to suffer for it.

Unless, of course, parents and voters insist otherwise at the local and state levels.